The opinions expressed on this blog, written or on videos are PERSONAL and do not necessarily represent the opinions of my employer.
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The saber-rattling is intensifying!

On September 27, 2014, in Economy & Actuality, Uncategorized, by Pascal Roussel

In recent weeks, an increasing number of leading figures have been warning about the risk of a world war. For example:

- According to the Pope, the world is currently living “a third world war, only waged in bits and pieces” (read here).

- On July 31, an official document was released, written at the Congress’ request by a group of former senior civil and military officials, to provide a critical analysis on the Pentagon’s official plans for the future (read here in French or English). The authors recommend that the Pentagon gets ready to fire up to half a dozen wars simultaneously, including wars in which the opponents have nuclear weapons!

- According to Roger Cohen, a New York Times columnist: “Instability in Ukraine, chaos in Syria, conflict in the East China Sea—the trigger points for World War III are in place.” (Read here in French or English)

- The well-known analyst, Martin Armstrong, believes that “world warIII is on the horizon” (read here)

- The analyst and author J.H. Kunstler also sees the seeds of a global conflict (see here and here)

- “We are at war,” said a French deputy, on September 15, during a debate before a new law against terrorism was voted, which envisages that websites advocating terrorism may be subject to censorship by the government and the prohibition for suspected Jihadists to leave the French territory (read here and here)

- Military frictions between the United States and Russia are piling up. Here are two recent examples: some American F22 fighters intercepted 6 Russian military planes off the coast of Alaska (see here) and in the Black Sea, to the astonishment of Americans, an Su-24 Russian aircraft simulated a missile attack against the USS Donald Cook by jamming and neutralizing its latest generation combat system, “Aegis” (read here)

- An anti-Islam campaign on New York buses is preparing the “good people” to clearly identify all Muslims as the enemy to be defeated (read here)

-  Russia Holds Massive Military Drill: 155,000 Troops, 4,000 Tanks, 632 Aircraft, 84 Ships (read here)

- etc.

Are there any common points with the first two world wars?

So, are we facing a third world war? Fortunately we are not there yet!

The first two world wars, although different, shared some characteristics, such as, for example:

- The geopolitical situation was unstable throughout the world. There were no peace heavens anywhere in the world.

- Both world wars began during a severe financial crisis. No need to recall the severe economic depression just before World War II. What is less known is that before the First World War, a severe financial crisis broke out in 1907. It also contributed to the unfortunate establishment of the Federal Reserve and the levying of an income tax on American citizens (see for example this or read this in French or English or English).

- The events that triggered these wars escalated very fast, many were “overtaken by the events” and found themselves involved in a war they had not seen coming (see for example this).

Geopolitical instability around the world, global financial, social and economic crises, militarization of American police, religious fanaticism, risk of escalation: the parallel is obvious.

I encourage curious readers to further investigate this comparison by reading for example this in French or English or English or English.

Most of you have certainly listened to the famous speech by Eisenhower against the military-industrial complex (see here). Unfortunately, since 1961 the influence of the American oligarchic elites on such military industrial complex has continued to grow (for example, see here the interview with L. Wilkerson, a retired US Army colonel).

What are the limits not to be crossed?

- In my previous posts, I extensively commented on the horrible civil war in Ukraine that originated in the USA and NATO countries and is currently fueled by Russia and NATO. Information is drowned in propaganda and against propaganda. Read here the excellent article by Karel van Wolferen, a highly renowned Dutch journalist and professor emeritus at the University of Amsterdam. Even more incredible, read here the last publication of the “Council on Foreign Relations,” the influential “Think Tank” whose members included more than 12 US Foreign Ministers. The article goes like this: “According to the prevailing wisdom in the West, the Ukraine crisis can be blamed almost entirely on Russian aggression… But this account is wrong: the United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the crisis… “. If one day Ukraine were to become a NATO’s member, that would be considered by the Russians (rightly or wrongly) as an act of war (for example, see here).

- In August, Britain called for Russia to be cut off from the SWIFT network (read here). The European Union is considering the same measure (read here and here). Fortunately, there was no follow up on this request, as presumably Russia would have responded vigorously. Why? When you ask your bank A to transfer 100 euros from your account to the account of a person in another bank B, the 100 euros are obviously not travelling on an armored car. In practice, Bank A will notify bank that B that Bank A owes 100 euros to bank B. Immediately after, a reverse transfer will presumably take place and bank B will inform Bank A of the transfer. And so on throughout the day. At closing, these transactions will be netted and one of the two banks will owe money to the other. It will ask for an overnight loan to other and transactions will resume the next day. We see that inter-bank communication plays a vital role and this is precisely the role played by SWIFT, a company owned and controlled by the world’s biggest banks. SWIFT provides interfaces and standardized messaging services for interbank transfers to more than 7800 institutions in over 205 countries, with about 22 million messages exchanged daily, adding up to trillions of USD. For a bank being cut off from SWIFT means asphyxiation and almost certain death due to lack of access to international transactions.

- The Middle East remains a catalyst for global conflict. Officially it is the humanitarian situation that prevails, in practice it is rather the gas and oil interests and the desire of great powers to reshape the region into many small, unsustainable and religiously homogeneous states, to be led by chiefs of tribe in the pay of the great powers. In this regard, read abut Russians’ warnings (here). According to the Voltaire Network, which is generally well informed about Middle Eastern affairs, the Islamic State was funded by the U.S.A. in an attempt to reshape the Middle East and export Islamic terrorism to China and Russia (read here and here).

- To ensure global financial stability and maintain the status of the US dollar as a “credible” reserve, it is essential for the price of gold no to escalate and that no sovereign government shows any specific interest in gold. Indeed, just like the canary in a coal mine, a surge in the price of gold indicates a loss of confidence in paper money. Now, provokingly Russia and China keep on accumulating gold. What we see is Russia giving up an economic future with Europe while strengthening its trade relations with the other BRIC countries, with the manifest goal of turning away from the dollar and the American debt (read here and here). Incidentally, as regards gold, the number of large 400 ounce gold bars purchased by the super rich increased 243% since the beginning of the year. Are these privileged and probably well informed ones fearing a less rosy future than the one presented in traditional media? (Read here).

What will be the actual trigger? A false flag attack?

Risk of stock market crash

Not only is the global geopolitical situation not brilliant but the financial world is also becoming increasingly unstable.

- Be careful about asset valuation in key market segments. This is essentially the warning launched by the European Markets Authority (ESMA) in the second version of its 2014 report, “Trends, Risks and vulnerabilities” (read here). “The prevailing optimistic market sentiment was at odds with sluggish economic fundamentals and partially related to the ultra-low interest rate environment” notes ESMA.

- The BIS (the central bank of central banks) has already issued numerous warnings (for example read this)

- The IMF has warned that sharp downside risks are raising (read here)

Warnings are pouring in, but the superabundant liquidity injected from central banks and hunting for yields in an ultra-low interest rate environment finds no better investment than the stock market.

Performance of the U.S. S&P 500 index

In this environment, how can we explain the last surprise rate cut by the ECB and the announcement of ABS purchases (with the help of Blackrock)?

The ECB move, which aims to further increase liquidity, is probably not unrelated to the results of its audit on bank assets’ quality, to be released on October 17. It could unveil some bad news…

The ABS purchase proposal has been strongly criticized by the Germans, who fear that the ECB lacks sufficient expertise (read here). For those who are not familiar with Blackrock, the leader of the financial oligarchy, here’s an insight (from wikipedia):

BlackRock is the world’s largest investment management company with about 4.59 trillion dollars in assets under management. Apart from these 4.59 trillion dollars from the institutional investment management business, almost 75% of its managed assets are invested in income instruments for non-institutional customers, making Blackrock a giant in this field. Blackrock has a great influence on Wall Street and in Washington D.C. and its shareholders include the Rothschilds, Elizabeth II Queen of the United Kingdom, the politician and American businessman Al Gore, the oil baron Maurice Strong, Warren Buffet, George Soros and Mexican businessman Carlos Slim.

This same Blackrock that last May warned about the American real estate market being even less healthy than during the last bubble (read here)

So, is Blackrock going to be a neutral adviser, truly concerned about the interests of the European populations?

Obviously the financial powers are doing everything in their power to keep the system afloat even if the impact on the economy is clearly zero. Why? Certainly to gain time as stated by Forbes columnist R.Ruparel (read here).

For neo-Keynesians it is a question of giving time to the economy to get back to its feet. According to this vast majority of economists and advisers, what matters is consumption even if it is on credit. As Simone Wapler said (here) “On average, over thirty years, in the U.S.A. each $1 of additional debt buys $ 0.18 of growth. Keynesianism does not create wealth, it just creates debt”.

According to others, it is a question of gaining time before the outbreak of an inevitable World War, a big “resetting” of the economy and the financial world that would lead the way to major reforms (such as the establishment of a single currency and a global governance).

So what will come first, a world conflict or a financial collapse? And what if the two took place simultaneously?

My goal is not to scare or depress readers but to prevent them. Personally, I am convinced that many good opportunities will arise once the system is rebuilt from scratch This website provides general information and does not contain any investment advice. The reader is responsible for his/her investment decisions.

The opinions expressed on this blog, whether written or on videos are PERSONAL and do not necessarily represent the opinions of my employer.

The sources used are often in English because English is the language of global finance

This post is also available in: French

 

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